The sentiment is surely flattering. Steve Kerrigan, convention planner for the Democratic National Committee, sat coolly before an expectant crowd Tuesday at Central Piedmont Community College and said: "The story of Charlotte is the story we want to tell at this convention."
Flanked by Mayor Anthony Foxx, former Mayor Harvey Gantt, and Dan Murrey, executive director of the Charlotte in 2012 host committee, Kerrigan gushed over the Queen City's remarkable gift for reinvention and resilience and predicted that, during these rough economic times, the world will be inspired by our city's fortitude.
That's not hard to imagine. What's tougher is Kerrigan's prediction of a windfall between $200 and $300 million based on the previous two DNC conventions - Boston in 2004 and Denver in 2008. "The short and long-term benefit of hosting a convention is staggering," he told a standing-room only crowd, many of which were small business owners.
In Denver and Boston, there are some valuable lessons to be learned about sorting hype and hubris from reality. After Beantown's convention, for example, Suffolk University's Beacon Hill Institute released a study called "The Economic Impact of the Democratic National Convention
on the Boston Economy: The Final Tally".
Alas, the report characterized the much-ballyhooed event as having marginal economic impact on the city. While Mayor Thomas Menino predicted that the convention would rake in $154 million, the actual yield was substantially less, the study said.
Among the reasons: normal workday productivity was halted due to road closures, other revenue generating non-DNC events were canceled, and spending among delegates and non-delegates in Boston's restaurants and shops was less than projected as attendees gathered instead at corporate parties and receptions.
In fact, many local businesses wound up saddled with "extra inventory and empty seats and cash registers." In the end, the BHI survey of one hundred local businesses concluded that only 11% reported an expected increase in patronage.
Similarly, while Denver officials calculated that the DNC generated an regional economic benefit of $266 million in direct and indirect spending, and $133.5 million in direct spending in Denver, those estimates didn't fully account for lost or displaced business due to the convention, some business leaders have argued.
Harvey Gantt said it best when he warned the crowd: "Everybody might be excited. But we've got to manage the expectations, too. Some folks will be fortunate enough to get it (a DNC-induced payday), but some of you won't."
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Thank you Ron for injecting a little reality into runaway DNC hoopla.
The fact is that if a convention can be "transformational" then the NRA convention a couple years back would've transformed CLT as it was much bigger in terms of attendees and out-of-pocket spending.
The thing with political conventions is that the delegates expect to spend NOTHING out-of-pocket -- and get pretty close. It seems the national DNC folks have clued our local bumpkins into that in recent weeks, hence the sudden focus on the "10,000" reporters who will come to town.
First, who knows if that number is accurate. Conventions are not the events they once were. Second, having covered three conventions, reporters do NOT spend money either. We hunt the freebies like a big game hunter on safari.
Now you begin to see why Dan Murrey was talking around "3rd party" opportunities -- namely lobbyists and special interests. They DO spend money. But only on certain people (reporters and delegates) and drive hard bargains with local suppliers. The idea that CLT won some sort of convention lottery and now has a pot-o-gold to collect just ain't true.
Finally, the crowd-out and disruption costs. Given the security climate and small footprint of Uptown, I don't think it is a stretch to assume that ALL non-convention business will cease in Uptown during the convention -- perhaps a little before. If so, the cost of any displacement must be included when pricing the DNC's impact on CLT.
There is a reason Charlotte only had the likes of StL, Minny, and Cleveland to beat to host this deal. That reason is cost -- cost that might outweigh the benefits for some in town.
Saying that outloud and upfront is the only responsible thing to do at this juncture. The continued cheerleading is embarassing.
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